I binged watched the TV series The Expanse in one week, I think I needed that. I have been disconnected with myself and my passion for awhile now, too focused on my work. But watching The Expanse made me realize why I started this blog in the first place. It was my way to share my passion, my views with everyone and I plan to keep it going. So here it goes.

In this article I want to focus on the famous drake equation. Why? The search for extraterrestrial civilizations is an ongoing scientific endeavor, and our understanding of the parameters in the Drake Equation may evolve as our knowledge of the universe improves through advancements in technology and research. You know what they say, the absence of evidence is not evidence of absence.

The Drake Equation is a mathematical formula developed by astrophysicist Dr. Frank Drake in 1961 to estimate the potential number of civilizations that may exist in our Milky Way galaxy with whom we could potentially communicate. It’s a way to help us think about the likelihood of intelligent extraterrestrial civilizations existing and how many of them might be out there.

The equation is expressed as: N = R* x fp x ne x fl x fi x fc x L

where:

• N represents the number of civilizations in our galaxy that could potentially communicate with us.
• R* stands for the average rate of star formation in the galaxy, which tells us how many new stars are being born over time.
• fp represents the fraction of those stars that have planets, as not all stars may have planets orbiting around them.
• ne represents the average number of planets per star that are in the habitable zone, where conditions might be suitable for life as we know it.
• fl represents the fraction of habitable planets where life actually arises.
• fi represents the fraction of planets with life where intelligent civilizations develop.
• fc represents the fraction of civilizations that develop technology to communicate across interstellar distances.
• L represents the average length of time that civilizations release detectable signals into space.

By multiplying all these factors together, the equation attempts to estimate the number of civilizations in our galaxy that might have the potential to communicate with us. The Drake Equation is often used more as a thought experiment and a way to stimulate discussions about the possibilities of extraterrestrial civilizations rather than providing a definitive answer.

Now let’s see how this works in an example. Let’s assume the following values for each parameter:

• R* (average rate of star formation in the galaxy) = 10 stars per year
• fp (fraction of stars with planets) = 0.5 (50% of stars have planets)
• ne (average number of habitable planets per star) = 0.2 (on average, 20% of planets around each star are in the habitable zone)
• fl (fraction of habitable planets where life arises) = 0.1 (10% of habitable planets develop life)
• fi (fraction of planets with life where civilizations develop) = 0.01 (1% of planets with life develop civilizations)
• fc (fraction of civilizations that develop interstellar communication technology) = 0.01 (1% of civilizations develop technology for interstellar communication)
• L (average length of time civilizations release detectable signals) = 100 years (civilizations release detectable signals for 100 years on average)

Plugging in these values into the Drake Equation:

N = R* x fp x ne x fl x fi x fc x L

N = 10 x 0.5 x 0.2 x 0.1 x 0.01 x 0.01 x 100

N = 0.001

So, according to this example, there may be approximately 0.001 civilizations in our galaxy that could potentially communicate with us. This is a simplified example and the actual number of civilizations, if any, in our galaxy is still unknown and subject to scientific investigation and discovery.

This is just hypothetical now. While there is ongoing research and exploration in the field of astrobiology and the search for extraterrestrial intelligence (SETI), we have not yet detected any confirmed signals or signs of extraterrestrial civilizations. The parameters used in the Drake Equation, such as the rate of star formation, the fraction of stars with planets, and the likelihood of life and civilizations arising, are still uncertain and the subject of scientific investigation and debate.

The vastness of the universe and the limitations of our current technology and methods for detecting extraterrestrial civilizations make it challenging to draw definitive conclusions.

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